2017 Nissan Leaf
The range of electric cars has been one of the major hurdles preventing greater uptake. Unless you can afford a Tesla (range of 500kms) you’re currently stuck around the 160kms range with today’s production vehicles. Although today’s range is more than enough for the average driver range anxiety is a definite deterrent. (According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, motor vehicles in Australia travel an average of 14,000kms per year (2012 figures) – about 270kms weekly or in EV terms, 2 charges per week with current battery technology).
The other major reason holding back buyers is the upfront cost. There is no doubt current production EVs are relatively expensive in comparison to their Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) counterparts. But how long will these factors hold back consumers from greater adoption?
The EV world is currently on a quest for battery technology that has long life, greater power density, can be recharged quickly and costs around $150 per kWh. Although that may sound like a long wish list, advances are being made in every area with vehicles slated for end 2016/2017 to have a range of 300kms and be cost competitive with their ICE equivalents. At that stage, the undisputed cheaper running costs (70% – 80% less) will weigh heavily on buying decisions.
A range of 300kms would mean the average Australian car owner would only need to charge up once per week. Tesla have already stated their Gen 3 (people’s car) will have a range of at least 300kms and cost around $35,000. It’s due to debut in 2016. Not to be outdone, Nissan has also indicated their updated 2017 Leaf model (new design & shape) will have a similar range. To compete head to head with the Tesla wow factor, Nissan will have to offer the Leaf for less.
Image courtesy Cleantechnica.com
So is battery technology really advancing that quickly and will costs come down rapidly? It seems that every few weeks a story emerges of very promising battery breakthroughs. Much research is under way for the prize to bring something to market is literally worth billions. Recent news from Solid Energy suggest a battery capable of around 650kms at a price point of around $130 per kWh – less than half the current price of Tesla’s batteries. Tesla are building their battery Gigafactory with the stated aim of reducing battery costs by around 40%.
Another announcement in the last month was from scientists at NTU university in Singapore who have developed technology that will mean batteries with a life of 20 years that are capable of very rapid charging (think around 5 minutes to charge your EV). VW have also been conducting their own research into batteries having publicly stated they want to be the leader in EVs by 2018. It’s rumoured they have made a breakthrough in Lithium air technology which would have massive implications for the EV market.
A 300kms EV for the average motorist is just 2 years away. A very affordable 500kms range electric car be should be on the streets around 2020. The surge in EV ownership has not yet met expectations – that may all change sooner than many expect.
CANT WAIT!
I would love to buy an EV but have been held back by the price mainly, and to a lessor extent the range. I also require a 4wd with higher clearance due to where I live and this is just not available unless you live in California and can get a RAV4 EV. Seems like the big car companies don’t want EV’s to take off with the current price tag!
Hi Robert – the only option I know of in Australia is the Mitsubishi Outlander hybrid. It’s had very good reviews and could be an option – price tag around $50K however. Thanks for your comment.
I’d like to buy a new car today. I prefer electric, not hybrid. Why have 2 engines and the extra weight of the petrol engine, as well as the weight of batteries. I also prefer the quiet of an electric engine.
My concern is the range. Want to be able to travel around Oz a bit. Am retired and not in a hurry, don’t have to do 600km in a day (except where there’s no town with accommodation closer).
Initial outlay is less of concern, but cannot afford a Tesla.
Not sure if my current car will hold up for another year.
I understand that Hyundai are also coming out with something electric?
As a second household car, for daily runabout (20km to work and another 20 home), range doesn’t worry me. What does is the initial cost, and the options for charging. When they can match the $20-$25K price tag of a small petrol car (Renault Zoe, with leased batteries?), then I’ll be buying.
As much as I love Tesla (and who doesn’t?), a car that costs AU$50K is still an expensive car.
Would like to think that this forecast could come true, but I’m doubtful the auto industry want to give the public an affordable practical EV. The lack of servicing costs to the consumer will put them off.
Hi Dan – thanks for your comments although I’m more optimistic about the future of EVs. They are an unstoppable force now and the technology is rapidly advancing. The take up will be more rapid than many expect. The most costly aspect of EVs is the battery but battery pricing will be reducing due to the likes of the Tesla Gigafactory. Only today I’ve read that Boston Power will be competing with their own Gigafactories (http://inhabitat.com/boston-power-looking-to-take-on-tesla-in-ev-battery-market/) – it’s a bright future for EVs – maybe not so bright for car servicing departments however but I’m sure they’ll adapt.
Hi Dan – thanks for your comments although I’m more optimistic about the future of EVs. They are an unstoppable force now and the technology is rapidly advancing. The take up will be more rapid than many expect. The most costly aspect of EVs is the battery but battery pricing will be reducing due to the likes of the Tesla Gigafactory. Only today I’ve read that Boston Power will be competing with their own Gigafactories (http://inhabitat.com/boston-power-looking-to-take-on-tesla-in-ev-battery-market/) – it’s a bright future for EVs – maybe not so bright for car servicing departments however but I’m sure they’ll adapt.
Why is the Australian government so behind the rest of the “western” world? EV cars are expensive but if powered through renewable energy (e.g. Roof mounted solar or 100% green energy from commercial providers) contribute to more efficient energy use, independence from foss fuels and cleaner air. Yet, in stark contrast to other developed countries, Australia has no tax cuts or any other incentives to buy an EV. Is anyone lobbying the guys and girls in Canberra? Perhaps instead of spending most of their time fighting to keep their own jobs they could start doing something useful for the people who asked them to run the country.
Couldn’t agree more Mark – it’s pathetic that successive governments in Australia have ignored the huge public health issue that’s associated with petrol/diesel pollution and it’s associated costs. We need to transition to the new technologies of zero emissions vehicles from an economic (improved balance of payments), strategic (less reliance on foreign oil), health (save $5 billion annually on health costs) and environmental (reduction of climate altering gases) perspectives. Canberra is asleep at the wheel.
I’m also looking forward to the EV revolution, bring it on. The reason I’ve been hesitating buying an EV, and trying to coax my current car to last a bit longer, is the cost of current vehicles and knowing that the cost and technology of the near future vehicles is going to be way ahead. Also a change of PM may suddenly see greater incentives. I’m going to need a car soon though!